Joint ESMIA-Dunsky Ontario Cost-Effective Energy Pathways Press Release

Ontario Retains ESMIA and Dunsky to Conduct Cost-Effective Energy Pathways Study to Support the Province’s Energy Transition

Robust modelling and analysis will support the province’s energy, environmental and economic goals and ensure the energy needs of Ontarians are met affordably

ESMIA Consultants, in collaboration with Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors, has been awarded the mandate by the Ontario Ministry of Energy to conduct an independent Cost-Effective Energy Pathways Study that will identify cost-effective pathways to support the province’s energy transition.

Through an integrated and holistic view of Ontario’s economy, the core of the Study will be an assessment of the most cost-effective pathways to meeting energy needs across all sectors. The Study will explore various scenarios that reflect plausible, affordable and reliable futures for Ontario to 2050. The Study will also include an assessment of barriers to achieving the identified ideal energy scenarios, as well as no-regret actions that can jump-start the transition of Ontario’s energy system.

To conduct this Study, ESMIA will leverage its industry leading North American Times Energy Model (NATEM) model. NATEM uses an economy-wide optimization approach, looking at the interaction of thousands of discrete fuels, technologies and sectors to provide a rigorous analytical basis for studying the transition toward a clean energy future. ESMIA is partnering with Dunsky, whose extensive analytical, technical and policy expertise will provide the province with nuanced and practical pathways to slash emissions while supporting economic growth and energy affordability. The two firms have previously collaborated on similar studies for the provinces of Quebec and Manitoba, as well as in the U.S.

The Study is intended to provide decision-makers and stakeholders in the province with insights – backed by deep technical expertise and rigorous analysis – that serve as valuable input to future policy discussions and decisions, as well as long-term energy planning in the province. Additionally, outcomes from the Study are expected to be a critical input to the work being led by Ontario’s Electrification and Energy Transition Panel (Panel) and will provide insights that inform the Panel’s recommendations.


ESMIA offers a solid expertise in 3E (energy-economy-environment) integrated system modelling for strategic decision-making at city, regional, national and global scales. ESMIA specializes in economy-wide energy system optimisation models and have led the development of turnkey large scale energy system models for various organisations worldwide. ESMIA also offers advisory services using their proprietary models that focus on analyzing complex problems such as energy security, electrification, energy transitions, and climate change mitigation.

About Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors

Dunsky supports leading governments, utilities, corporations and others across North America in their efforts to accelerate the clean energy transition, effectively and responsibly. With deep expertise across the Buildings, Mobility, Industry and Energy sectors, our team of 50 professionals supports clients in two ways: through rigorous Analysis (of technical, economic and market opportunities) and by designing or assessing leading Strategies (plans, programs and policies) to achieve success.



“This modelling initiative will help determine the choices and trade-offs needed to build the energy system of tomorrow. We are privileged to have the opportunity to work on this project that is so important to meeting the energy needs of Ontario residents and businesses.”

Kathleen Vaillancourt, President, ESMIA Consultants

“Energy is at a crossroads, at home and around the world. As the historic energy transition unfolds, we’re honoured that Ontario has entrusted us with delivering the serious, insightful analysis needed to shape energy policy into the future.”

Philippe Dunsky, President, Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors

“The Ministry of Energy is looking forward to working with ESMIA Consultants and Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors on the Cost-Effective Energy Pathways Study. Together, the Panel and the Study will help the government make the best strategic decisions to reform our long-term energy planning process to serve Ontarians and prepare our province for the energy system of the future.”

Todd Smith, Minister of Energy