Cost Effective Energy Pathways Study for Ontario

ESMIA has been mandated by the Ontario Ministry of Energy to conduct an independent Cost-Effective Energy Pathways Study that aims to identify least-cost pathways to decarbonizing the province’s energy system by 2050 (summary). Through an integrated and holistic view of Ontario’s economy, the core of the study is an assessment of various scenarios that reflect plausible, affordable, and reliable energy futures for Ontario to 2050. The study also includes an assessment of barriers to achieving the identified ideal energy scenarios, as well as no-regret actions that can jump-start the transformation of Ontario’s energy system.

To conduct this study, ESMIA used its industry-leading NATEM, RateVision and NAGEM models. NATEM uses an economy-wide optimization approach, looking at the interaction of thousands of discrete fuels, technologies, and sectors to provide a rigorous analytical basis for studying the transition toward a clean energy future. RateVision projects the impact of energy transition on energy prices for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers, evaluates the effect of gas distribution, and gasoline and diesel infrastructure abandonment, quantifies bills for different types of households’ archetypes. NAGEM is an advanced dynamic macroeconomic model that completes the analysis by computing the impacts on economic growth, public welfare, and employment. The study is intended to provide decision-makers and stakeholders in the province, including to the Electrification and Energy Transition Panel (EETP), with insights that serve as valuable input to future policy discussions and decisions, as well as long-term energy planning in the province.