Modelling TransformTO net zero strategy scenarios using Local Emissions for Net Zero (LENZ) modelling suite

This project commissioned by the City of Toronto aimed to analyze and project Toronto’s pathway to net-zero emissions by 2040. ESMIA, who developed the LENZ Modelling Suite, worked closely with the City to define actions and policies, engage stakeholders, collect relevant data, and model different scenarios using LENZ. The project evaluated the impacts of federal, provincial, and city-level policies on GHG emissions and costs, providing detailed insights for the city’s climate action strategies. Key tasks included scenario modelling, stakeholder engagement, policy implementation, data collection, and model calibration. Three primary scenarios were modeled: Business as Planned – Updated, Business as Planned – Funded, and Net Zero by 2040 – Updated. These scenarios helped determine the impact of planned and funded policies, as well as additional actions required to achieve the 2040 net-zero target. ESMIA also provided a technical appendix detailing the assumptions, methodologies, key findings, and offered ongoing support for model updates and policy assessments. The project’s outcomes supported effective decision-making and actionable plans to guide Toronto toward its ambitious climate goals.