Optimal role for harvested wood products in net-zero pathways for Canada with biogenic carbon accounting

The objective of this project was to enhance the modelling that quantifies the contribution of forests to achieving Canada’s climate targets and economic development by optimizing the representation of harvested wood products (HWPs). This enhanced energy system modelling initiative required a very rigorous representation of provincial and territorial forest industries as sources of bioenergy, feedstock for the pulp and paper industry, and building materials, while also establishing causal relationships to other competing sectors with an extended 2070 horizon. ESMIA was selected to perform this enhanced modelling exercise using its proprietary NATEM model and improve the representation of long-lived HWPs (lumber, oriented stand board, engineered wood products, etc.) while capturing the substitution potential of other more GHG-intensive building materials (e.g., concrete and steel) across Canada and in international markets.

This project also included the addition of detailed biogenic carbon accounting, including the carbon content of wood-related commodities by species, biogenic carbon emissions from bioenergy sources, and decay factors for wood decomposition in forest. Different Forest Management and Net Zero 2050 and 2070 Scenarios were modeled against a Base Case Scenario at the national and provincial levels. Soft-linking/data harmonization between the Government’s internal forestry and carbon accounting models and NATEM was performed. By the end of this project, ESMIA’s NATEM model has become the most comprehensive energy system model in Canada, covering both the energy and the forest sectors, to study net zero and decarbonization pathways.