Modelling energy pathways and analyzing their impacts on the evolution of the Quebec economy

Bill 69, which became the Act to ensure the responsible governance of energy resources, modernized Québec’s energy framework and introduced the Plan de gestion intégrée des ressources énergétiques (PGIRE). The plan is intended to guide decisions by the government, energy distributors and other stakeholders to ensure the orderly, predictable and sustainable management of Québec’s energy resources through 2050.

In this context, the PGIRE 2026–2050 represents Québec’s first integrated energy planning exercise. Developed by the Government of Québec in collaboration with Hydro-Québec and natural gas distributors, it establishes a common framework for long-term energy planning, taking into account supply needs, energy system decarbonization, energy security, infrastructure, costs and economic impacts.

ESMIA was mandated by the MEIE to carry out the integrated energy-economy modelling supporting the development of the PGIRE. The mandate relied on the Québec versions of ESMIA’s proprietary NATEM and NAGEM models, which were closely coupled to jointly analyze Québec’s energy pathways and their economic impacts.

As part of this project, ESMIA developed an advanced version of its integrated modelling platform, with a detailed representation of Québec’s 17 administrative regions, transmission and distribution networks, electricity and gas production and supply, associated costs, and peak demand. The two-way coupling between the energy and economic models made it possible to produce coherent analyses linking energy needs, investments, greenhouse gas emissions and macroeconomic impacts.

The mandate also involved significant iteration, validation and exchanges with the MEIE teams, energy distributors and sector experts. Based on the modelling results, ESMIA produced comparative analyses, decision-support indicators and a sophisticated dashboard to monitor key results and support long-term energy planning.

Finally, ESMIA supported the MEIE in adopting the modelling platform and tools developed through the project, helping build the capacity needed to support future analyses and potential updates to the PGIRE.