Developing global best pratice modelling for an optimal development of the Canadian forest sector for climate change mitigation and economic growth

ESMIA is involved in the conceptualization of a rigorous decision-support framework to help Canada become a global leader in the development of forest bio-products for climate change mitigation and economic growth. Defining optimal strategies regarding the future role of the forest sector requires special refinements in integrated and dynamic energy system models such as NATEM. ESMIA is collaborating with CFS to: 1) represent biomass resources and harvesting strategies at the forest management unit level; 2) model multiple conversion pathways into pulp and paper products, lumber and timber, harvested wood products, biofuels and bio-products; 3) capture the substitution potential of harvested wood products with other building materials which are more GHG-intensive (e.g., concrete and steel) across Canada and on international markets.

The approach is completed with a detailed biogenic carbon accounting to the 2070 horizon, based on state-of-the-art forest bioscience, including the carbon content of wood-related commodities depending on the species, biogenic carbon emissions from bioenergy sources and decay factors for wood decomposition in forest.

The extended NATEM model becomes the most comprehensive energy system model in Canada covering both the energy and the forest sectors to study net zero pathways.