Updated modelling for the progress report on the Hydrogen Strategy for Canada

Reviewed by 80 experts, our modelling results show more conservative hydrogen consumption figures for 2050 than those of the 2020 Strategy, but consistent with results from other studies.

Canada’s Hydrogen Strategy was released in 2020 and laid out a framework for low-carbon hydrogen to become a tool for net-zero emissions reduction by 2050 and positions Canada to be a world-leading producer, user, and exporter of low-carbon hydrogen and related technologies.

In 2022, the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development (CESD) released an audit report on the role of hydrogen in Canada’s energy system and suggested that Natural Resources Canada should perform a new comprehensive bottom-up modelling exercise on hydrogen use that accounts for emission reduction efficiencies by sector, substitution fuels, and feasible deployment of technologies and supporting infrastructure.

ESMIA was selected to perform this new modelling exercise for Natural Resources Canada and the assumptions and results of our modelling work were reviewed by 80 subject matter experts from the private sector, provinces and territories, academia, and NGOs through multiple formal engagement sessions and workshops. Additionally, as part of the 2021-2024 Hydrogen Strategy Progress Report, the results of our modelling were compared with 5 other existing models.

ESMIA investigated three main scenarios – Technology Neutral, Hydrogen Supportive, Hydrogen Challenging. The results of the new modelling were more conservative than the 2020 Hydrogen Strategy but consistent with results from other net-zero studies and analysis. 

For example, the Hydrogen Supportive scenario shows that hydrogen consumption could reach 9.2 Mt in 2050 vs. the 20 Mt estimated by the ‘transformative’ scenario in the 2020 Hydrogen Strategy and 69 Mt of CO2e could be avoided by 2050 vs. 190 Mt of CO2e avoided in the original Strategy. This modelling work represents an important step forward in understanding the role that low-carbon hydrogen could play in Canada’s decarbonized energy system moving forward.

Hydrogen consumption and share of end use in 2050, across 26 scenarios

Source: Hydrogen Strategy for Canada: Progress Report

Moving toward net-zero, gray hydrogen would be replaced by blue hydrogen, with additional demand met by green & biomass-based hydrogen with CCS, offering the added benefit of negative emissions.

ESMIA’s modelling for the Canadian Hydrogen Strategy: Progress Report outlines how hydrogen production in Canada could evolve under three main net-zero scenarios to meet net-zero emissions by 2050. Technology choice is determined by the model using its least social cost algorithm.

By 2030, the Hydrogen Challenging and Technology Neutral scenarios show a slight decline in SMR without CCS, with new production coming from ATR with CCS and PEM electrolysis. The Hydrogen Supportive scenario boosts hydrogen production from these technologies even further. By 2050, when Canada meets its net zero goals, SMR production without CCS would no longer be viable. Equipment using ATR with CCS that was installed by 2030 is still producing at almost the same capacity in 2050 and additional hydrogen needs are met by new PEM electrolysis combined with biomass gasification with CCS, which offers the added benefit of negative emissions.

An additional Hydrogen Export scenario explores the impact of global demand and trade prices on hydrogen production, projecting nearly 14 million tonnes of hydrogen produced by 2050 when prices reach $5/kg H2 from 2040 on. The other scenarios hypothetically explore the targeted use of pure hydrogen for heating in buildings, either regionally restricted pipeline retrofits or possible nationwide, leading to a projected 10% increase in hydrogen consumption by 2050 (compared with the Hydrogen Supportive scenario in 2050). Other scenarios consider the targeted use of pure hydrogen for heating in buildings, with either regionally restricted or nationwide pipeline retrofits, leading to a projected 10% increase in hydrogen consumption compared to the Hydrogen Supportive scenario.

These scenarios provide a detailed outlook on how hydrogen production could evolve in Canada to meet carbon neutrality target at the minimum cost.

By 2050, hydrogen could meet 2% to 12% of total final energy consumption, and up to 20% of industrial energy use, though electricity remains the dominant energy source across all sectors.

Currently, and through 2030, hydrogen use is dominated by oil production and refining, with some blended hydrogen in buildings and transportation under the Hydrogen Supportive scenario. However, without incentives, demand could slightly decrease by 2040 due to reduced oil production and increased electrification reducing gas demand for buildings. Pure hydrogen demand, especially in the industrial sector, rises significantly after 2040 as long-lived equipment is replaced.

By 2050, hydrogen could meet between 2% and 12% of total final energy consumption. These projections reflect uncertainties in technology costs, performance, and policy support over the coming decades. Under the favorable conditions, hydrogen is projected to become increasingly competitive with bioenergy and electricity, reaching 20% of final energy consumed in industries, but electricity dominates energy use in all scenarios and all sectors.

Reference: ESMIA (2023). Modelling hydrogen’s potential across multiple sectors of the Canadian economy. Final Report, 130 p.