Development of the Local Emissions for Net Zero (LENZ) Modelling Suite for Toronto: coupling a strategic energy system model with a power system operation model

ESMIA was selected by the City of Toronto to provide the city with a suite of open-source energy modelling tools to support the implementation of its Net Zero Strategy accompanied by instruction manuals, tutorial videos, and case studies. The three-model platform involves: i) a long-term economy-wide energy system and GHG planning model (TEMOA), ii) a short-term electricity system planning model (SILVER) with a higher spatial and temporal (hourly) resolution to capture the operational aspects of the energy system, and iii) a linking tool to pass information from one model to the other and facilitate sophisticated post-processing operations such as spatial result disaggregation. The most important criteria required for the development of the models were: i) the code needs to be open-source, ii) written in python, and iii) provide least-cost pathways to achieve ambitious GHG emissions mitigation targets (including net zero).  

The case study for the project included the analysis of future residential energy bills for Toronto households, the quantification of energy burden by income decile and the quantification of subsidies required to keep energy poverty under a considered threshold. A particular focus was placed on the evaluation of prosumers effect on energy burden and on the potential further increase of the difference between energy bills paid by high- and low-income households. To support the City in just energy transition and energy affordability, ESMIA proposed a list of potential policies to tackle the risks of increasing energy poverty among the city residents.