Development of a sophisticated TIMES optimization model for energy, electricity and greenhouse gas emissions projections in Quebec (Canada)

ESMIA works closely with these ministries on the development of a sophisticated TIMES energy optimization model linked with a general equilibrium model for Quebec. Unveiled for the first time in 2020 by the Minister of Finance, the model is used since then to prepare the Implementation Plan of the 2030 Plan for a Green Economy (PGE) every year. The optimization model provides a detailed techno-economic view on the different greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options that is complementary to the macroeconomic vision brought about by the Ministry’s existing general equilibrium model. The powerful coupling of the two models allows projection of energy and GHG emissions through 2050 based on various socio-economic growth scenarios. The integrated modelling enables detailed investigation of the interrelations between the economy, technological innovation, and climate change mitigation options, and an estimation of sectoral GHG reduction potentials with an assessment of the impacts of the numerous regulations and measures proposed to reach the 37.5% emissions reduction target for 2030.  The MFQ and the MELCC won the 2023 Scientific Collaboration Prize from the Institute of Public Administration of Quebec (IAPQ) for this work. ESMIA played a key role in the development of the energy system optimization model mentioned in the prize and its integration with the MFQ’s general equilibrium model.